The Widening Divide in Iran

July 1st, 2009 by Opinionator

Good stuff from Tehran Bureau:

The importance of the emerging fissures in the ranks of the clerics is not that the leftist clerics are supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi in his confrontation with the hard-liners, but that the fissures are developing even among the ranks of the conservative ayatollahs and influential clerics who were usually supportive of Ayatollah Khamenei — or at least silent in order to present a seemingly united front against the leftist faction, as well as the reformist and democratic groups.

The clerics in Qom and Mashhad recognize that there is much more at stake than a disputed election. They see an existential threat to the entire Islamic Republic as they mull their decision whether to support the official result, protest it or continue to remain silent.

Although street protests seem to be tapering out (albeit not completely; there are still upwards of 3,000 people gathering in Tehran), the foundations of the Islamic Republic have apparently suffered existential damage. How long it takes to ultimately crumble is unknown — I suspect anywhere from 6 months to 10 years — but the inevitability of it has become clear.

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